The growth of mobiles is still as strong with 6.6 billion subscribers in the world in 2013 and forecasts to more than 8 billion by the end of 2018
IDATE, an analyst partner of the LTE World Summit 2014, which is taking place from 23 to 25 June 2014 in Amsterdam, is releasing the results of its study published as part of its Telecom Players & Markets follow-up. After the low of 2009 and a slow growth in 2010, the world market has regained since 2011 the path of moderate growth. In 2013, it stood at 2.4%. ” Overall, we observe that telecom services are now moving less rapidly than the general economy, ” said Didier Pouillot, Director of the Telecom Strategy Business Unit. In the recovery phase, the advanced markets’ telecoms markets are slowly starting to recover, while developing economies continue to benefit from strong volume dynamics. This phenomenon is an illustration of a mature industry driven by demography rather than by the economy. For example, in Africa / Middle East, the fall in regional GDP in 2009 (-6%) and its rebound in 2010 (+ 16%) had little effect on growth in telecoms services, which remained very Respectively, at + 8% and + 9% for the two years.
Income from telecom services
According to IDATE, world telecoms revenues will increase from EUR 1 186 billion in 2013 to EUR 1 341 billion in 2018, an average annual increase of 2.5%.
• Mobile revenues will increase by 17% between 2013 and 2018 (+ 3% per year on average), to reach 826 billion EUR in 2018.
• Revenues associated with data transmission and the Internet will increase more sharply (+24 % Between 2013 and 2018, an average of + 4% per year), reaching EUR 338 billion in 2018.
• Fixed-line revenues will continue to decline substantially (-15% between 2013 and 2018, Of 3% per year on average) to reach 177 billion EUR in 2018.
Majority mobile access
According to IDATE, the number of mobile customers in the world could exceed the 8 billion mark at the end of 2018 (+ 21% compared to the end of 2013).
• The number of accesses to the fixed Internet will also continue to increase (+ 18% between 2013 and 2018, ie + 3% per year on average). However, the billion access should not be reached until 2020.
• Traditional fixed lines continue to give way to VoIP and mobile.
The progression of broadband
According to IDATE, the number of subscribers to fixed broadband is expected to reach 858 million by 2018 worldwide. The number of LTE mobile subscribers is expected to grow very strongly, relayed by the LTE-Advanced in early adopters countries. IDATE announces 1.3 billion LTE subscriptions globally by the end of 2017, generating a total revenue of 400 billion Two major factors will play in favor of broadband growth:
• The success of bundled offers (access Internet, fixed telephony, TV, mobile telephony) and the appetence for video applications.
• The investment of telecom operators for the migration of their infrastructures towards mobile or fixed broadband.
Different performances among operators
• European operators are still struggling, with income growth slowing down, but strong investment needs.
• North American operators enjoy a sustained momentum in their domestic market, particularly in mobile.
• While several major operators in emerging countries continue to show strong dynamics, close to or higher than 10% (Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom), a number of them are still pacing in 2013 , With growth regularly close to 0 (América Móvil, MTN, Oi, Vimpelcom). However, margins remain high (between 30 and 40% of EBITDA margin, or even higher). Many of these operators are largely engaged in international expansion strategies.